30+ forecasts from researchers, lab CEOs, prediction markets, and community surveys — each with source, date, and methodology note. Updated weekly.
| Predictor | Year ↕ | Type | Stated ↕ | Notes | Source |
|---|
What qualifies for inclusion: A prediction must be publicly stated by a named individual or organisation, with a traceable primary source (interview, paper, tweet, or official publication). Paraphrased secondhand reports are not included unless corroborated by a direct source.
Year shown: The median or central estimate given. Where a range is stated (e.g. "5–10 years"), the midpoint is used. Where probability language is used (e.g. "50% chance by 2030"), the 50th percentile year is shown.
How the composite median is calculated: The weekly tracker median (shown on the homepage) weights prediction market data at 40%, academic surveys at 35%, and individual expert estimates at 25%. Individual CEO/entrepreneur estimates are down-weighted because they carry systematic optimism bias — they benefit commercially from AGI interest. The weighting is reviewed quarterly.
Update trigger: The table is updated when a new credible prediction is published, an existing predictor materially revises their estimate, or a prediction market moves its median by more than 2 years. Minor fluctuations are not logged.
Definition used: "AGI" here means a system capable of performing the majority of cognitively demanding tasks at or above human expert level across domains, without task-specific training. Predictions explicitly about "superintelligence" or "transformative AI" are labelled separately in the notes column.
If you use this data in a publication, article, or report, please cite it using one of the formats below. A backlink is appreciated and helps keep this resource funded.