AGI forecasts moved from 2060 to 2031 in four years. Here's what the benchmarks say about when it arrives, which professions it hits first, and what builders are seeing right now.
AGI stands for artificial general intelligence — an AI that can do anything a human can do, across any domain, without retraining. Here's the precise definition, where 2026 AI sits against it, and why the threshold is closer than most people think.
OpenAI launched GPT-6 Astra on September 3, 2026. Greg Brockman said "welcome to the AGI era." Here's what Astra actually does, what the benchmarks show — and whether this really crosses the threshold.
OpenAI says we're in the AGI era. Metaculus puts the median at 2033. Kalshi says 55% chance by 2030. Here's how to read the evidence — and why the answer depends entirely on which definition you use.
Dario Amodei says late 2026 or early 2027. AI 2027 maps a quarter-by-quarter sprint. Sam Altman expects it this presidential term. Here's what each actually means — and what the evidence says for and against.
In 1965, statistician I.J. Good wrote one paragraph that predicted everything. The intelligence explosion — what it is, whether it's already underway, and why it's the bridge between AGI and ASI.
ASI means surpassing the best humans in every cognitive domain. Here's what researchers actually mean, how it differs from AGI, and what the leading forecasters say about how far away it is.
AGI and ASI get used interchangeably, but they describe very different thresholds. Here's what separates them, what the best scenario models say about the gap, and why it matters for the next decade.
Three blockchain-AI projects merged in 2024 to form the Artificial Superintelligence Alliance. Here's what the merger produced, how the $ASI token works, and how this decentralized bet on ASI compares to OpenAI and Anthropic.
The math behind why solo founders are suddenly building what used to take a team of 15 — and what the AGI timeline has to do with it.
Not theory. Notes from shipping agentic systems in music, content, and SaaS this year — what works, what breaks, and what keeps pulling the timeline forward.